Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:David Mundell  (CON)
County/Area:Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:80,562
Turnout:69.7%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON24,71044.0%
SNP16,97230.2%
LAB12,47822.2%
LIB1,7743.2%
UKIP1920.3%
OTH10.0%
CON Majority7,73813.8%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dumfries and Galloway

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dumfries and Galloway, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dumfries and GallowayTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAbbey8,987Galloway and Dumfries2,7581,554127001,7930306,262
Dumfries and GallowayCastle Douglas and Glenkens7,837Galloway and Dumfries2,772553172001,8340755,406
Dumfries and GallowayDee7,244Galloway and Dumfries2,579560176001,6460995,060
Dumfries and GallowayLochar7,770Galloway and Dumfries2,1071,144124001,5840244,983
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale2,643Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East;
Galloway and Dumfries		7915142500524081,862
Dumfries and GallowayMid Galloway7,302Galloway and Dumfries2,15671681002,1920795,224
Dumfries and GallowayNith7,335Galloway and Dumfries2,0571,523148001,5490535,330
Dumfries and GallowayNorth West Dumfries9,734Galloway and Dumfries2,5882,634201002,1700387,631
Dumfries and GallowayStranraer and North Rhins7,025Galloway and Dumfries2,443859111001,6530765,142
Dumfries and GallowayWigtown West6,493Galloway and Dumfries2,09371876001,7580564,701
 Total72,370 22,34410,7751,2410016,703053851,601

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dumfries and Galloway seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,492Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,9121,043316001,786007,057
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,137Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East4,201931284002,040007,456
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South10,771Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,7302,069388002,077008,264
Dumfries and GallowayLochar2,030Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East;
Galloway and Dumfries		6663074500461001,479
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,453Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,2841,21587001,388004,974
Dumfries and GallowayNith2,050Galloway and Dumfries6794225300470001,624
Scottish BordersTweeddale East7,299Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk;
Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale		2,630528292001,847005,297
Scottish BordersTweeddale West7,477Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale2,774471348001,912005,505
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,535Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,24849688001,770004,602
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,471Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East1,0526194900984002,704
 Total65,715 24,1768,1011,9500014,7350048,962

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse12,446Lanarkshire South West2,4652,0752079303,557008,397
South LanarkshireClydesdale North54Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East1112100120036
South LanarkshireClydesdale South7,335Lanarkshire Mid;
Lanarkshire South West		1,1841,85410312101,925005,187
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride Central North14,162Lanarkshire South West2,1903,38030410903,663009,646
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride Central South11,181Lanarkshire South West1,5412,8602858802,907007,681
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride East9,780Lanarkshire South West1,4652,3192477902,529006,639
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride South11,698Lanarkshire South West1,7802,6142607303,534008,261
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride West12,550Lanarkshire South West3,0692,0431836402,897008,256
 Total79,206 13,70517,1571,590627021,0240054,103

The full details of these calculations are given on the East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lanark and Hamilton East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse835Lanarkshire South West224134176025000631
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston10,040Lanarkshire Mid2,4411,6551294601,952006,223
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,324Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East1,03238150130844002,320
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,639Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,6312,3181835402,442007,628
South LanarkshireClydesdale South608Lanarkshire Mid11212288013100381
South LanarkshireClydesdale West14,815Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,0783,13829412503,263009,898
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,137Lanarkshire Mid1,7751,9491485202,101006,025
South LanarkshireHamilton South10,495Lanarkshire Mid2,0522,7381606402,185007,199
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock633Lanarkshire West137167157016700493
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,334Lanarkshire Mid2,6943,48221017603,109009,671
 Total75,860 16,17616,0841,214551016,4440050,469

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lanark and Hamilton East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East

The new seat of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		Old Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,753Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale3,9121,043316001,786007,057
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,306Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale4,201931284002,040007,456
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South11,422Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale3,7302,069388002,077008,264
Dumfries and GallowayLochar1,438Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale4682163200324001,040
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale211Dumfries and Galloway62402004101146
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,875Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale2,2841,21587001,388004,974
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,360Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale2,24849688001,770004,602
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,555Lanark and Hamilton East1,03238150130844002,320
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,687Lanark and Hamilton East2,6312,3181835402,442007,628
South LanarkshireClydesdale North54East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow1112100120036
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,737Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale1,0526194900984002,704
South LanarkshireClydesdale West15,164Lanark and Hamilton East3,0783,13829412503,263009,898
 Total80,562 24,70912,4781,774192016,9710156,125

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

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